Biznes Fakty
Donald Tusk: This is really good news. Prime Minister on industry data. PMI for February 2025
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for Poland’s industry stood at 50.6 points in February, an increase from 48.8 points in January, according to S&P Global. This marks the first time the index has surpassed 50 points since April 2022. Prime Minister Donald Tusk remarked that „this is indeed positive news.”
The PMI serves as a leading indicator, designed to predict the future condition of industries or services prior to the release of actual data, such as industrial output or retail sales. A value exceeding 50 points signifies growth in the sector, while a value below indicates a contraction in industry.
What is driving the growth?
„The upward trend in the index indicated a revival in new orders, production, and employment, alongside a near-stabilization in inventory levels of purchased goods. In February, new orders directed to Polish manufacturers rose, marking the end of a record decline that began in March 2022. Manufacturing firms reported enhanced market conditions and signs of economic recovery, although the rate of growth remained limited,” the report states.
New export orders continued to decline, albeit at a reduced rate.
The increase in new orders recorded in February was only the third occurrence within the last three years, which was mirrored by a rise in production levels.
„It is important to acknowledge that the growth rate was only modest. Despite the uptick in new orders, companies were still quickly reducing their production backlogs. After four months of inventory depletion, the stock levels of finished goods have stabilized. With the improved market conditions observed in February, the outlook for the next twelve months has further brightened since the start of this year. Sentiment reached its highest level since February 2024, with only one instance of a higher score in the past three and a half years. Companies attributed their optimistic outlook to new products, increasing demand, improved conditions in Germany, and a resurgence in the markets,” the report added in its commentary.
Price increases
In February, driven by rising demand and improved forecasts, manufacturers felt confident enough to increase their product prices. Production costs rose for only the second time in nearly two years, and at the fastest rate since February 2023. The inflation of industrial prices aligned with the long-term survey average.
Insights from economists and others
„The end of stagnation in Polish manufacturing is on the horizon. In February, the PMI index exceeded 50 points for the first time since April 2022, marking the first increases in production and new orders in almost three years. Although foreign orders continue to diminish, the improvement is primarily driven by domestic demand,” commented analysts from ING Bank.
„We have arrived! The Polish PMI has returned from a long hiatus and is now above the 50-point mark for the first time in three years. Recovery is underway (both in Poland and globally in industry),” stated economists from Bank Pekao.
„Indeed, we have achieved it! For the first time in three years, PMI surpasses 50 points, signifying that recovery in Polish industry is now a reality! It may sound technical, but trust me, it’s truly encouraging news,” Prime Minister Donald Tusk shared on social media.
