Biznes Fakty
Inflation in August 2025. Latest data from the Central Statistical Office
As per a preliminary estimate, the prices of consumer goods and services experienced a 2.8 percent increase year-on-year in August, according to the Central Statistical Office (GUS). The GUS also noted that inflation showed a decrease of 0.1 percent compared to the previous month.
Analysts polled by PAP Biznes had anticipated a 2.9% year-on-year increase in prices for August, with expectations of no change month-on-month.
In July, inflation was recorded at 3.0% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, indicating a positive trend.
According to the Central Statistical Office (GUS), the prices of food and alcoholic beverages rose by 4.8% year-on-year, energy carriers by 2.3%, while fuel costs for private transport saw a significant decrease of 7.7%.
On a monthly basis, food and non-alcoholic beverages saw a price drop of 0.1%, energy carriers increased by 0.1%, and fuels dropped by 1.9%.
Inflation in August 2025. Comments
In their commentary regarding the preliminary estimate, the mBank Research team stated, „we require more details, but it appears to be very positive, disinflationary data.” „The MPC can confidently lower rates in September,” the analysts remarked.
Analysts from ING Economics Poland highlighted that „the primary reason for the reduced figure is the decline in core inflation.”
„The cut in September is nearly assured, but further reductions will depend on upcoming statements from MPC members indicating that we are not in a cycle, along with the substantial fiscal deficit projected for 2026,” they emphasized.
„The figure is slightly below expectations, attributed to the drop in core inflation to roughly 3.1% year-on-year, which is quite encouraging,” noted analysts from Pekao.
They further mentioned that „these factors should provide sufficient justification for the Monetary Policy Council to reduce interest rates at the forthcoming meeting in September.”
