Biznes Fakty
Inflation in May 2025. New data from the Central Statistical Office
According to inflation statistics published by the Central Statistical Office (GUS), prices in May 2025 increased by 4 percent compared to the same month last year. In contrast, prices saw a decrease of 0.2 percent compared to the previous month.
Previously, in a preliminary estimate, the Central Statistical Office indicated that prices in May rose by 4.1 percent year-on-year and declined by 0.2 percent month-over-month.
„In May of this year, the most significant influence on the overall consumer price index was due to lower prices in transportation (down by 2.4%) and in recreation and culture (down by 1.8%), which contributed to a decrease in the index by 0.25 percentage points and 0.13 percentage points, respectively,” reported the Central Statistical Office on Friday.
Comments from economists
„The rise in energy prices has been adjusted downward from the initial estimate to 13.0% year-on-year from the previously reported 13.1%. We believe that core inflation (excluding food and energy costs) has fallen to approximately 3.2-3.3% year-on-year,” stated analysts from PKO BP on social media.
„Core inflation likely decreased to 3.2% year-on-year. In July, the CPI is expected to drop to around the NBP target, with relative stability anticipated in the following months. The Monetary Policy Council has reasons to initiate a cycle of interest rate reductions, but will they act on this in July?” – noted in the commentary by ING Economics Poland.
Economist Rafał Mundry mentioned that inflation might drop below 3 percent in July. He stressed that „there is increasing potential for rate cuts.”
However, he added, „the only uncertainty lies in how the Israel-Iran conflict and oil prices will evolve.”
