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Norway: Expert Dampens Enthusiasm After Discovery of Gas Deposit in the Baltic Sea
At this point, it is challenging to accurately evaluate the quality of the natural gas found in the deposit near Świnoujście, stated Professor Christian Holden from the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) in Trondheim. He also pointed out that potential investment and extraction expenses remain uncertain.
On Monday, the Canadian group Central European Petroleum revealed the discovery of a natural gas deposit beneath the seabed of the Pomeranian Bay. Its estimated size is around 200 million barrels of oil equivalent.
A distance from the Norwegian gas fields
Prof. Christian Holden from the Faculty of Engineering at NTNU University of Technology in Trondheim, where many experts in the Norwegian fuel sector receive their education, assessed that although the stated size of the deposit appears substantial, it is still far from the largest gas fields in Norway.
– Among nearly a hundred gas fields in operation in Norway, the one found in the Baltic Sea would roughly be in the middle tier – Holden remarked in an interview with PAP.
The specialist noted that predicting when production could commence at the Świnoujście field is quite difficult. Production occurs under various terrain, location, and geological conditions, which means there are no standardized structures or designs; each platform and its related infrastructure must be crafted from the ground up. According to Holden, this will consume time, irrespective of the administrative, environmental, and legal processes involved.
– Even a five-year timeline for initiating production would be overly optimistic, in my view – stated the scientist.
Estimating costs is challenging
He further indicated that estimating the investment costs required to commence production is also complicated. On one hand, the Baltic Sea at the discovery site is shallow, with the seabed approximately 10 meters deep, potentially allowing for the use of smaller platforms. However, Holden anticipates that the gas from the Świnoujście field may be heavily contaminated.
„It might contain significant amounts of carbon dioxide, water, and even sulfur. For the gas to be integrated into the system, it needs to be purified. This necessitates additional installations. We also lack information regarding the pressure within the deposit. If it is high, extracting the gas would be easier. If it is low, production would necessitate compressors from the outset. Compressors will eventually be needed anyway, as pressure in the deposit diminishes with extraction,” the Norwegian researcher reminded.
Gas from a field is seldom extracted completely. The PAP source indicated that the average extraction rate is 75%, and its efficiency notably declines over time.
What will Poland profit?
Holden also mentioned that estimating how much Poland will profit from gas in the Pomeranian Bay is difficult. He pointed out that some nations have mandated the inclusion of domestic, often state-owned, companies in the production process. This enables the country to gain not only from license fees and taxes but also to partake in revenues at each stage of exploitation.
„Certainly, we would be thrilled to discover a deposit of this magnitude in Norway, but it wouldn’t fundamentally alter our industry or its revenue. Our largest field, Troll, is 50 times larger than the estimated size of the newly discovered field in the Baltic Sea. The next two are 20 times larger. Unfortunately, I don’t believe it is feasible to plan the long-term development of the country based on gas extraction from the deposit near Świnoujście,” concluded the Norwegian professor.
