Biznes Fakty
„Poland faces a significant breakthrough”. Report
The overall investment value within the Polish economy could reach one trillion złoty by 2030, according to forecasts from Pekao Bank experts. A key driver for this investment surge will be extensive transformation initiatives in sectors such as energy, military security, transportation infrastructure, and digitalization.
In Pekao Bank’s recent report titled „Czas Polski. How did it become rich and transform into a resilient knowledge-based economy?”, analysts assert that „Poland is on the verge of a major breakthrough” in terms of investment in the upcoming years. The report’s forecasts suggest that by 2030, the total investment value in the Polish economy could hit one trillion złoty.
Analysts highlighted that the increase in household spending on goods and services in Poland has been among the fastest in recent years compared to the top ten markets in the EU, and this year, Poland is set to surpass the Netherlands in nominal terms, entering the EU’s top five. They further noted that Poland leads the region in boosting research and development activities and is „climbing the ranks” in EU innovation metrics.
GDP sees significant growth
The report reveals that over the past decade, Poland’s GDP has grown by more than a third (almost the highest among all EU nations), and the disparity in GDP per capita compared to the EU average has decreased by nine percentage points. During this period, the value of foreign goods sales has approximately doubled, while services have nearly tripled. „Due to the rapid increase in population income, Poland is gaining relevance not just as a competitive production hub but also as a consumer market,” experts pointed out.
The report’s authors indicated that in the coming years, significant investment growth will be driven by major transformation initiatives across various sectors, particularly the green transition of the energy sector, military security, transportation infrastructure (including the Central Communication Port and High-Speed Railway), energy efficiency, digitalization, and the circular economy.
„The accelerating infrastructure investments (…) will catalyze the growth of numerous economic sectors in the next few years. (…) They will lay the groundwork for further, more complex stages of transformation,” emphasized Krzysztof Mrówczyński, sector analysis manager and co-author of the report.
High-speed railways in Poland PAP„A wealthier, more technologically advanced nation”
Experts from the bank envision an optimistic future for Poland in a decade: „a wealthier, more technologically advanced, and better-connected nation.”
„We anticipate that by then, Poland’s GDP per capita may surpass that of Italy, with investments reaching 25 percent of GDP. Poland will also provide a higher quality of life – Poles will enjoy an average lifespan five years longer, wages will approach 80 percent of the EU average, and the shortage of available apartments will be addressed,” forecasts Dr. Piotr Bartkiewicz, co-author of the report.
According to the report’s authors, an essential aspect of economic transformation will be the increasing share of high-tech industries and knowledge-based services. Poland should also aim to boost its research and development expenditure to 2.5 percent of GDP, and its communication and energy infrastructure should fully align with Western standards.
The Pekao study further indicates that nearly 60% of electricity consumed in Poland should originate from renewable sources by then. The authors of the report believe these targets are attainable „provided that current trends continue, a full transformation effort is made, and the global environment remains relatively stable.”
Engines of growth
The report also identifies sectors that may emerge as engines of growth in the upcoming years, driving a modern Polish economy. „It is not solely the food, furniture, or plastics industries, where Polish companies should aim to ascend the producer hierarchy and target premium segments,” the experts observed.
The report’s authors also include various high-tech industries in this category, where Polish companies currently have a weaker position, but favorable demand conditions are expected to provide good opportunities for growth in the coming years, such as the IT sector, arms manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and the production of other transport equipment.
Additionally, the report highlights several areas that, according to its authors, are worth emphasizing due to their „excellent global prospects.” These include components for the renewable energy and electromobility sectors, the space industry, and semiconductor production. Experts believe these sectors could „significantly” enhance Poland’s competitiveness in the global marketplace in the years to come.
Bank Pekao SA is recognized as one of the largest financial institutions in the CEE region and the second largest universal bank in Poland, with assets amounting to PLN 333 billion. The bank boasts the second largest branch network in the country.
