Biznes Fakty
Poland's rating. MF: Fitch rating agency maintains Poland's rating at A-/F1
The Fitch rating agency has upheld Poland’s rating at A-/F1 for both long- and short-term obligations in foreign and local currencies, as stated by the Ministry of Finance. The ministry indicated that the outlook for the rating remains stable.
The agency asserts that Poland’s current rating is supported by its substantial, diversified, and resilient economy, as well as its history of prudent macroeconomic policies driven by its EU membership. Fitch also highlighted the country’s robust external finances and a more substantial and stable budget revenue base compared to other nations.
Poland Rating. Fitch Rating Agency
These elements—detailed in the ministry’s press release—are counterbalanced by a larger budget deficit, diminishing (albeit increasing) revenue levels, and poorer governance metrics. „Fitch projects that the general government deficit has risen to 6.2% of GDP (up from 5.3% in 2023). Military expenditure increased from 2% of GDP in 2021 to approximately 4% in 2024, the highest in Europe according to NATO data,” it was noted. Fitch anticipates a reduction in the fiscal deficit to 5.0% by 2026 and subsequently to 3.7% by 2028. It expects that public debt as a percentage of GDP will stabilize at 64% in 2028 before gradually decreasing. „The agency predicts an annual economic growth rate of 3.1% for both 2025 and 2026 (revised down), as the repercussions of US tariffs on the eurozone’s growth outlook will be largely offset by domestic consumption and EU funding,” the release stated.
What will raise or lower the rating?
Fitch believes the ratings could be upgraded if medium-term fiscal consolidation leads to a notable reduction in the public debt-to-GDP ratio; significant enhancements in political system efficiency, reflecting a sustained reduction in political polarization or improvements in the policy framework and rule of law; and sustained higher GDP growth, which would bring revenues closer to the median of the „A” category more swiftly, supported by policies that do not induce macroeconomic, fiscal, or external imbalances. A downgrade could occur if there is a failure to achieve fiscal consolidation that undermines confidence in the government’s ability to stabilize public debt in the medium term at a level comparable to other nations; and if there are significantly lower growth prospects in the medium term, possibly due to a decline in competitiveness or prolonged economic stagnation among trading partners.
What is a rating?
Rating agencies are private entities established to assist investors in assessing the risk associated with their investment activities. Their services are utilized by individuals, multinational corporations, banks, pension funds, and investment funds. Financial institutions, businesses, or countries may all be subject to the agency’s evaluation. A country’s rating can have a tangible impact on its economic appeal.
The American agencies Standard & Poor’s, Fitch, and Moody’s, known as the „big three,” dominate the majority of the global market for rating services. Each agency employs its unique rating system.
The rating is represented by a letter symbol according to the established scale, supplemented by modifiers—numbers or signs—to delineate distinctions within a specific category.
