Biznes Fakty
Inflation in 2026 above target. Forecast
The Prime Minister’s Chancellery has reported that inflation is projected to average 3.8 percent in 2026, while real GDP growth is expected to reach 3.5 percent, with a decline anticipated in the following years.
On Tuesday, the government approved the proposal for „Multi-annual macroeconomic assumptions for 2025-2029,” presented by the Finance Minister. These assumptions will serve as the foundation for the draft budget bill for 2026.
Inflation forecast
The projections indicate that in 2026, inflation will average 3.8%. In the years that follow, the expected average annual inflation will be 3% in 2027, 2.8% in 2028, and 2.5% in 2029.
According to the National Bank of Poland, core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, was reported at 3.6 percent year-on-year in March of this year. This figure was also 3.6 percent in February.
Poland’s inflation target is established at 2.5 percent, with an allowable deviation of +/- 1 percent.
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Additionally, the document states that real GDP growth will be 3.5 percent.
In the subsequent years, as indicated by the draft assumptions, the GDP growth rate is set to decline. In 2027, the GDP growth rate is expected to be 3 percent, followed by 2.7 percent in 2028, and 2.6 percent in 2029.
In 2024, Poland’s GDP is estimated to be 2.9% higher in real terms compared to 2023, contrasting with a mere 0.1% increase in 2023 (based on constant prices from the previous year) – as per the preliminary estimate by the Central Statistical Office.
