Biznes Fakty
Red on the WSE. All major indices are falling
The Warsaw Stock Exchange experienced a decline on Monday, with WIG20 dropping over 1 percent. Experts attribute the exchange’s performance to several factors, including the outcomes of the first round of presidential elections in Poland.
As of around 10:00 a.m., WIG20 has decreased by 1.07 percent, now standing at 2,780.17 points. The WIG index has fallen by 0.85 percent to 102,273.98 points, while mWIG40 has decreased by 0.40 percent to 7,975.92 points, and sWIG80 has dropped by 0.30 percent to 28,810.58 points.
Data from 100% of voting districts released on Monday morning by the National Electoral Commission indicates that KO candidate Rafał Trzaskowski garnered 31.36% of the votes, while PiS candidate Karol Nawrocki received 29.54%, setting the stage for a second round in the presidential elections. Voter turnout was recorded at 67.31%.
US credit rating downgrade and Polish elections
Sobiesław Kozłowski, an analyst at DM Noble Securities, mentioned in a discussion with PAP Biznes that multiple factors are influencing the WSE’s current behavior.
– Primarily, (…) the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, which was reported on Friday by a major rating agency – stated the analyst.
Moody’s downgraded the U.S. government’s top credit rating from AAA to AA1 on Friday, citing ongoing challenges in managing the increasing national debt.
– Additionally, the results of the elections were announced. These outcomes seem surprising as the likelihood of Rafał Trzaskowski winning in the second round is not as straightforward as previously anticipated – assessed Kozłowski.
– Notably, one of the bookmakers is indicating a greater chance of Karol Nawrocki emerging victorious. This is unexpected considering the scenarios that investors had been contemplating, or could have considered, he added.
According to the analyst, the period of dollar depreciation may be nearing its end. – The question remains whether this assumption is valid and if the dollar might strengthen while the euro weakens, which would also exert pressure on the depreciation of the złoty,” Kozłowski explained. – The circumstances surrounding the election results appear to set the stage for partial profit-taking in banks, particularly by foreign investors – he added.
Analysts from Millennium Bank noted that before the weekend, the frontrunner in the presidential race was the Civic Coalition candidate Rafał Trzaskowski, which aligned with investors’ base scenario.
Experts believe that the outcomes of the first round do not ensure the realization of this scenario. Moreover, the relatively strong performances of Sławomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun potentially provide Karol Nawrocki with more room to maneuver.
However, it should be highlighted that the distribution of votes from supporters of candidates who did not advance is uncertain and challenging to predict. This uncertainty is compounded by the fact that these candidates campaigned against the dominance of the two main parties, PO and PiS. In addition to the flow of support, the turnout and engagement of voters will be crucial for the second round’s outcome,” they added.
Analysts have pointed out that while the president’s authority over economic matters is limited, the use of veto power allows for some influence over economic policy, as well as other issues significant to investors, such as the rule of law, judicial matters, and relations with the EU. A scenario where the presidency and government come from opposing political groups could impact the country’s institutional assessment and increase the risk premium. This is particularly relevant given that the results of the first round indicate a decline in support for the ruling coalition, which could lead to internal tensions and a potential reshuffling in the parliamentary elections under extreme circumstances.
SEE ALSO: Presidential elections 2025. National Election Commission results – who emerged victorious?
Performance of individual indexes
In sector performance, the WIG-Banks index has seen the largest decline, dropping by approximately 2%. WIG-Nieruchomości (-1.3%) and WIG-Paliwa (-1.3%) have also experienced downturns. Among the blue-chip stocks, the most significant drops are observed in Santander Bank (-2.6%), mBank (-2.3%), and PKO BP (-2.1%).
CCC shares have decreased by about 2 percent, PZU is down roughly 1.8 percent, and Pekao has fallen over 1.5 percent. In WIG20, Dino shares are showing the highest gains, increasing by about 1.4 percent.
In mWIG40, Mirbud’s shares are experiencing the largest decline (-4.8%). On Friday, Mirbud’s management suggested distributing PLN 9.9 million of the net profit for 2024 as dividends, translating to a dividend of PLN 0.09 per share. Shares of Lubawa (-4.
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