Biznes Fakty
Budget 2026: „This is what we should be most concerned about.” Experts on the project
The government has approved the draft budget for 2026. „Given the reality of such a significant deficit, we have limited room for errors that are not always within our control,” stated Dr. Przemysław Kwiecień, chief economist at XTB, in an interview with TVN24. Łukasz Wilkowicz from „Dziennik Gazeta Prawna” remarked that „the long-term outlook is more concerning” and that „the benchmark from which this deficit is expected to decline is continuously being adjusted.”
Finance Minister Andrzej Domański announced that, as per the draft approved by the government, budget revenues for 2026 are projected to be around PLN 647 billion, while expenditures are estimated at approximately PLN 918.9 billion. He also indicated that the budget deficit for 2026 is expected to be roughly PLN 271.7 billion, equivalent to 6.5% of GDP.
Read more: The government has approved the draft budget for 2026
Economist on the draft budget for 2026
„The magnitude of debt in the economy and public finances is increasing,” Dr. Przemysław Kwiecień, chief economist at XTB, commented on the passed legislation during a segment on TVN24. „We don't perceive it directly, of course, so it appears somewhat illusory,” he added.
– One way or another, we will bear the cost – Kwiecień added.
In his view, „eventually, this funding must be identified.” „If not through new taxes, then via reductions in spending, which has currently become a political taboo regarding social expenditures, as parties compete to offer more financial benefits, creating the illusion of receiving something from the state. However, ultimately, we bear the cost through increased taxes,” the economist explained.
According to the expert, „we’ll face the cost in a different manner.” „For instance, by not raising the tax-free allowance. Because that also effectively constitutes a tax hike. If inflation is present and the tax-free allowance remains nominally unchanged, the effective tax rate rises,” Kwiecień clarified.
He pointed out that economists did not anticipate spending reductions. „This trend was expected, and I doubt there were significant illusions or expectations regarding, for example, stricter measures or general limitations on social policy,” he mentioned.
Expert on the planned deficit
„Let’s hope we aren’t faced with a scenario where financing this deficit becomes problematic. We don’t have complete control over this, as the current stability of Polish debt prices, which I would say have even been rising lately, means that the cost for the government to borrow is reasonable, but this is also influenced by global developments,” Kwiecień observed.
„In the context of such a significant deficit, we lack substantial leeway for failure, which is not always under our control. The Prime Minister is indeed suggesting that the budget is bordering on safety,” Kwiecień remarked.
„This is what should worry us most”
„I am more concerned about the long-term perspective and the most alarming figure. It appears to me, as we learned today, that the total public finance deficit, calculated according to EU standards, is anticipated to approach nearly sixty-seven percent of GDP next year,” stated Łukasz Wilkowicz from „Dziennik Gazeta Prawna” during his discussion with TVN24.
He further noted: – If I recall correctly, the plan to reduce the deficit discussed last year or at the beginning of this year indicated we were supposed to slightly surpass sixty percent, with expectations for a decrease over time.
He clarified that while „the Finance Minister continues to assert that the deficit will be reduced,” the „benchmark from which this deficit would decline is persistently being adjusted,” or „these benchmarks are continuously being elevated.”
– I believe this is what should most concern us when considering public finances broadly, rather than focusing solely on whether I will receive the 800 plus benefit or whether I will be granted a thirteenth or fourteenth pension – emphasized Wilkowicz.
Adoption of the draft budget
As per the budget process outlined on the Ministry of Finance’s website, the Ministry of Finance is expected to prepare and submit a preliminary budget draft to the government in August, which will then be presented to the Social Dialogue Council for evaluation. The Council of Ministers has until September 30 of this year to finalize and adopt the budget draft for the upcoming year and submit it, along with a justification, to the Sejm.
According to the constitution, the budget must be presented to the president for signature within four months from the submission date to the Sejm. Should this not occur, the president may, within 14 days, call for the shortening of the Sejm’s term. The constitution mandates that the president signs the budget within seven days.
