Biznes Fakty
Expert warns: medium-sized businesses may feel the effects
„The impact of the trade agreement between the European Union and the United States will be experienced by medium-sized enterprises in Poland,” stated Professor Jacek Tomkiewicz from Kozminski University. He emphasized that this primarily pertains to Polish subcontractors within the German automotive sector.
On Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen declared that a trade agreement has been finalized between the United States and the European Union. The agreement establishes a 15 percent tariff on the majority of European products exported to the U.S., while the EU will also procure weapons and energy supplies from the United States.
Insights on the EU-US agreement
Professor Jacek Tomkiewicz, Dean of the College of Finance and Economics at Kozminski University, believes this agreement is advantageous for both American consumers and European manufacturers. „This arrangement is significantly more favorable than what President Donald Trump had previously suggested. While the surrounding confusion, anxiety, and market instability were clearly unnecessary, it’s reassuring that we have finally reached an agreement,” he remarked.
In July, the American president posted a letter to the head of the European Commission on the Truth Social platform, indicating an increase in „reciprocal tariffs” to 30 percent starting August 1. He also mentioned that should the EU retaliate, the tariffs could be raised even more.
On Sunday, von der Leyen revealed that, under the new agreement, a 15% tariff would be applied to most EU exports to the United States, including those from the automotive, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical sectors. As per the President of the European Commission, both parties would also abolish tariffs on aircraft, select chemicals, generic medications, and agricultural products.
Impact on Polish businesses
As noted by Professor Tomkiewicz, only approximately 3% of Poland’s exports are directed to the American market. The situation is even more concerning for indirect exports, particularly to Germany, one of Poland’s key trading partners.
„The ramifications of this agreement might be experienced by medium-sized companies, especially those that serve as subcontractors for the German automotive industry. Poland exports a considerable volume of automotive components, for instance, and acts as a subcontractor for Mercedes and BMW, whose products subsequently reach the United States. Germany is not only a crucial trading ally for us but also one of the largest exporters to the U.S.,” the economist clarified.
The Federal Association of German Industries (BDI), which unites numerous German industrial associations, stated on Monday that the EU-US trade agreement would have „significant adverse effects on German industry, which is predominantly export-oriented.”
The German publication „Spiegel” reported that experts anticipate the German economy could suffer a decline of between 0.1 and 0.2 percent of GDP. „This isn’t catastrophic, but it represents an additional factor hindering fragile growth in Europe’s largest industrial nation,” asserted Michael Sauga on the weekly’s website.
During a meeting with journalists on Sunday, the head of the European Commission was asked whether she was confident that the U.S. would not raise tariffs on pharmaceuticals. She emphasized that „we are confident it will be 15 percent.” „However, another matter is what decision the United States will make on a broader scale,” von der Leyen added.
Trump also conveyed on Sunday evening that there was no possibility the agreement between the EU and the U.S. would pertain to pharmaceuticals.
Tariffs on pharmaceutical products
According to EU sources, the U.S. will not impose tariffs on pharmaceutical products, but such tariffs could be introduced in the future once the Trump administration concludes its investigation under Section 232 of the U.S. Trade Act of 1962, which covers pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, timber, essential raw materials, shipbuilding, and additional sectors.
„We do not have clarity yet, and I recognize that the Trump administration may also be uncertain about how the investigation regarding pharmaceutical products will conclude. However, it is evident to us that regardless of the result, they will not face a rate exceeding the EU’s 15 percent,” an EU official stated on Monday.
When asked if the new trade agreement, as announced by von der Leyen, would have a considerable impact on drug prices in Poland, Professor Tomkiewicz disagreed. He remarked that „the pharmaceutical market is very particular.”
„The pharmaceutical market in Poland is predominantly regulated, with the National Health Fund negotiating with pharmaceutical companies to set prices for subsidized medications. This is not a typical free market where we can easily discuss a straightforward translation into drug prices at pharmacies. However, the market for everyday pharmaceuticals, such as pain relievers, is highly competitive. Therefore, I do not foresee an increase in prices for aspirin or paracetamol due to tariffs,” he elaborated.
Trump also stated that under the agreement, the EU committed to substantial purchases of American military equipment and energy, with the latter amounting to USD 750 billion.
