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Prices in stores in June 2025 – retail price index
In June 2025, the prices of everyday items in stores rose by 5.8 percent compared to the same month last year, as reported by the „Retail Price Index” compiled by UCE Research and WSB University Merito. The most notable price increases were seen in sweets and desserts.
A review of almost 90,000 retail prices revealed that in June of this year, everyday items experienced an average price rise of 5.8 percent year-on-year. In May, the increase was recorded at 5.7 percent, and in April, it stood at 5.6 percent. The authors of the report remarked that this indicates a slight rise in the dynamics of price increases for yet another month.
What experienced the highest price surge in June?
Sweets and desserts experienced the highest price surge in June, with an increase of 16.1% year-on-year. In second place were fatty foods (butter, margarine, oil, etc.), which saw a rise of 15.7% year-on-year. Following them were stimulants (coffee, tea, alcohol, etc.) at 14.8%, fruit at 11.5%, and soft drinks at 10.7%.
For the first time this year, the prices of items in three product categories decreased. Bulk commodities (e.g., sugar and flour) dropped by 4.6%, while personal hygiene products and vegetables saw a decrease of 0.5% year-on-year.
A new trend in the food sector
„This can be attributed to persistently high production and distribution expenses. Prices are further impacted by escalating raw material costs and the lingering effects of past inflation, still present in the economy. Seasonal supply limitations, such as those caused by weather anomalies, also play a crucial role. The minor acceleration in price growth in June does not necessarily suggest a lasting trend, but it does indicate that cost pressures persist,” Dr. Hubert Gąsiński from WSB Merito University noted.
According to experts from UCE Research, a new trend is beginning to emerge in the market. From January to May, price reductions were typically observed in only one category, while in June, prices fell in three of the 17 product groups analyzed.
„Previously, we saw four categories experiencing price drops in July 2024, but at that time, the overall price growth rate was 3.9 percent. Notably, the June figures show significant variation in price changes across individual segments,” Dr. Marek Szymański from WSB Merito University commented.
The report indicates that the price rise for sweets and desserts was influenced by earlier increases in the costs of sugar, cocoa, and energy. The primary factor driving these hikes is the increasing price of chocolate.
The rise in the prices of fatty products is mainly due to fluctuations in butter prices, which have again seen a slight increase. In June, this product’s price rose by 20.3% year-on-year.
Adverse weather affects prices
„Rising prices of agricultural products, particularly milk and oilseeds, are critical, as they are subject to considerable volatility in 2025 due to adverse weather conditions. Additionally, this sector is particularly vulnerable to rising energy and transportation costs, as well as wage pressures, which lead to increased production and distribution expenses. Disruptions in global supply chains are also significant. Moreover, heightened exports restrict domestic market supply,” Gąsiński emphasized.
Price increases in the stimulant category are largely due to the rise in coffee prices. „On commodity exchanges, its price surpassed $4 per pound during this winter and spring. This represents a 100% increase over the year, which inevitably affected retail prices. Although the stock market prices for this product have been declining recently, a rapid decrease in prices should not be anticipated,” stated a WSB University expert.
Fruit prices rose by 11.5% year-on-year in June. „This is attributed to last year’s harvest being 15% lower than in 2023. Weather conditions are crucial. We will soon know what prices can be expected in this category for the fall and early next year,” Szymański remarked.
Soft drinks ranked fifth, showing a 10.7% price increase. „This sudden double-digit rise is a result of both seasonal and structural factors. During the summer, with rising temperatures and higher demand, producers and retailers find it easier to pass on increased costs to consumers. Cost factors, such as rising prices of raw materials, energy, and transportation, also play a significant role,” Gąsiński added.
The average price of meat rose by 7.7%, bread by 7.2%, children’s products by 6.3%, fish by
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