Biznes Fakty
They pay more than they receive in social benefits. Report
In 2024, the Polish state budget received over PLN 15 billion from Ukrainian emigrants, as reported by Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego. Additionally, the total disbursements under the 800 plus initiative for children of war refugees from Ukraine reached PLN 2.8 billion.
As mentioned in the report, Ukrainian nationals make up approximately 5 percent of all employees in Poland, with the highest concentrations found in the industrial, construction, service, and transport sectors.
The calculations conducted by the report’s authors reveal that, considering immigration from 2013 to 2024, Ukrainians have contributed to the Polish GDP growth between 0.5 and 2.4 percent annually. Experts from BGK highlighted that their calculations utilized data from various sources, including the Central Statistical Office, the National Bank of Poland, academic studies, and reports.
One of the key factors
Jarosław Dąbrowski, a member of the BGK board, stated that the recent influx of migrants from Ukraine is a significant factor influencing the Polish labor market and economy. He emphasized that, given demographic challenges such as an aging population and a labor shortage, their presence is strategically vital for the stability and future growth of the nation. – Beyond the Polish raison d’état, which necessitates supporting a sovereign Ukraine, Poland has a clear economic incentive to collaborate with our eastern neighbor – he remarked.
The report notes that Ukrainian migrants primarily find employment in specific sectors, while the employment rate among refugees is considerably lower compared to pre-war migrants.
– A significant number of Ukrainian migrants continue to occupy positions that do not require high qualifications, often below their levels of education and skills – remarked BGK Chief Economist Mateusz Walewski. He stressed that facilitating their access to more skilled roles and educational opportunities will be crucial for their continued integration.
Refugees from Ukraine at the Przemyśl PKP railway station (March 17, 2022) PAP/Darek Delmanowicz„Migration is not a major factor influencing the real estate market”
According to BGK experts’ analysis, Ukrainian migrants contribute more to the Polish budget than they receive in social benefits. – Estimates suggest that the tax and insurance payments made by Ukrainian migrants to the Polish budget total approximately PLN 15.1 billion, while the costs of benefits paid to them through the Family 800 plus program amount to around PLN 2.8 billion – the report states. It is also noted that migrants from Ukraine, who are working or studying in Poland, are entitled to numerous additional benefits, including access to public healthcare and free education.
The report further indicates that the claim that Ukrainian immigration affects the rise in real estate prices in Poland is unfounded. In fact, as noted, only 2.7% of property purchase transactions in Poland in 2023 were conducted by Ukrainians, with inflation and changes in the credit market being the primary drivers of price increases.
– Although there was a noticeable short-term spike in rental prices immediately following the onset of the war in Ukraine, migration is not the principal factor affecting the real estate market in the long run. Ultimately, inflation and the accessibility of credit exert a more substantial influence on prices – the authors concluded.
Increase in exports to Ukraine
The presence of migrants has also contributed to an increase in trade between Poland and Ukraine and a rise in financial transfers. Analysts have estimated that the nominal value of Polish goods exported to Ukraine has nearly quadrupled over the past decade. A similar trend has been observed in the value of transfers from Poland to Ukraine. However, it was noted that the proportion of transfers from Poland to Ukraine within the total transfer volume is gradually declining.
– Ukrainian immigration has fundamentally transformed the economic relations between our nations. An increasing number of Polish companies are forming partnerships with Ukrainian firms, and while money transfers remain significant, they indicate a gradual settlement of migrants and their rising local consumption – the authors of the BGK report highlighted.
Experts emphasized that to fully harness the potential of Ukrainian migrants, Poland should concentrate on their long-term integration by ensuring stable employment, housing options, and access to education and vocational training.
Demographic projections indicate that Poland will require a significantly larger number of migrants in the upcoming years than the current Ukrainian population within its borders. Data from the International Organization for Migration reveals that only 43 percent of refugees express a desire to remain in Poland permanently. – If we wish to attract and retain these workers for an extended period, we must create conditions conducive to their development and improved quality of life in our country – Walewski concluded.
The document considers both the effects of the mass influx of individuals following the Russian invasion in February 2022 and the impact of earlier waves of Ukrainian worker migration. It
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