Fuel prices at gas stations. Prices haven't been like this for months

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Fuel prices for petrol and diesel have decreased to levels last observed in mid-October 2024, according to Reflex. As reported by e-petrol.pl, fuel costs at service stations are expected to continue their decline until the end of March, although signs of this trend reversing are already apparent.

Analysts from Reflex noted that the average price for Pb95 was PLN 5.99 per liter, Pb98 was PLN 6.77/l, diesel was PLN 6.12/l, and autogas was PLN 3.14 per liter.

How are fuel prices at the stations faring?

They highlighted that in comparison to 2024, consumers are paying considerably less for petrol and diesel. „For unleaded petrol 95 and 98, as well as for diesel, we are saving 52, 32, and 61 groszy per liter, respectively, while the price for autogas has increased by 26 groszy per liter,” the analysts stated.

Reflex predicts that in the upcoming week, the prices for unleaded petrol 95 will range between PLN 5.95 and PLN 5.98/l; unleaded petrol 98 will be between PLN 6.73 and PLN 6.78/l. Meanwhile, the cost of diesel oil is expected to be between PLN 6.10 and PLN 6.14 per liter, and autogas will range from PLN 3.12 to PLN 3.14 per liter.

According to analysts from e-petrol.pl, despite the conclusion of wholesale market discounts, they still anticipate „downward corrections” in fuel prices at stations. They forecast the price ranges for various fuel types by the end of March to be PLN 5.88-5.99/l for 95-octane petrol, PLN 5.99-6.11/l for diesel, and PLN 3.10-3.17/l for autogas.

Data from e-petrol.pl shows that in the last week, the price of 95-octane petrol has decreased by one grosz, bringing its average price in Poland to PLN 5.98/l. Diesel oil has seen a more significant drop of five groszy, now costing PLN 6.12/l. Autogas has experienced a reduction of two groszy, with its average price being PLN 3.15 per liter.

Analysts suggest that while the cost of refueling is still declining, the pace of price reductions may „disappoint drivers.” They pointed out that there is already a „risk that the reductions may come to an end” due to circumstances in the oil and currency markets.

Oil price dynamics

„This week, we are witnessing a price increase on the wholesale market that hasn’t been seen in a long time,” analysts remarked. They believe that the reversal of the downward trend is linked to Brent crude oil prices remaining above $70 and the recent depreciation of the złoty against the US dollar. „Consequently, domestic producers are currently pricing unleaded petrol 95 at an average of PLN 4,546.20/m3, which is an increase of PLN 63 compared to last Friday. Diesel oil prices have risen by PLN 40.80 over the week, now costing PLN 4,705.60/m3 at refineries,” reported e-petrol.pl analysts.

They pointed out that a significant development in the raw materials market is the White House’s decision to impose new sanctions on Iran. „Yesterday’s announcement marks the beginning of the fourth round of sanctions from Washington against Iran since President Donald Trump vowed 'maximum pressure’ on Tehran in February and promised to reduce the country’s oil exports to zero,” the experts reminded.

Additionally, they mentioned that another crucial update is that eight nations (Algeria, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Oman, and Russia) will need to cut their production to offset an overproduction of 4.2 million barrels per day by June 2026.

„As part of this adjustment, Russia will cut production by an extra 25,000 barrels per day in March, 51,000 barrels per day in April, and will increase the reduction to 173,000 barrels per day starting in September 2025 to fully compensate for the excess in oil production,” the analysts stated.

They also highlighted that Kazakhstan, which has an overproduction of 908,000 barrels per day, plans to reduce its output until June 2026, with a decrease of 53,000 barrels per day in April and 90,000 barrels per day by October. „Iraq, a key member of the 'old OPEC,’ has to compensate for 1.954 million barrels per day and will also reduce its production until June 2026,” they noted.

Analysts emphasized that both of these factors could contribute to correcting the current clear downward trend, but it is essential to consider the global oversupply and Washington’s aggressive tariff policies, which may dampen demand in the US.

„The decline in oil prices to around USD 70 per barrel, combined with the strengthening of the zloty against the dollar, allows for further price reductions at service stations,” Reflex stated.>

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