Biznes Fakty
A huge wave of renovations. The cost will be enormous
The energy renovation of buildings in Poland, in line with the EU directive, could reach up to PLN 550 billion by 2035. Experts assert that such investments are crucial for decreasing energy costs and reducing the dependency on raw material imports. Concurrently, these renovations are expected to boost Poland’s economic growth.
The Fala Renowacji Association, in its report titled „The Polish Renovation Wave. Benefits for Poland by 2035,” highlighted that, based on estimates in the draft National Building Renovation Plan (KPRB), the expenses for implementing the EPBD directive between 2025 and 2035, arising from the need to renovate both residential and public buildings, will be around PLN 550 billion. Additionally, the modernization of lighting systems in residential and non-residential buildings will incur another PLN 10 billion.
Experts emphasize that this spending should be viewed as an investment in energy security and raw material independence, which will yield positive effects for the national economy.
Expenditures leading to savings
The report revealed that a comprehensive energy upgrade of residential properties could result in annual savings of PLN 32 billion in heating costs for households. Furthermore, families might also experience savings from improved energy efficiency in lighting, potentially exceeding PLN 2 billion each year.
It was noted that the current average annual heating cost for a household is about PLN 4,400 nationwide. Should the EPBD directive be enacted, the average heating cost per Polish household in 2035 could decrease to PLN 4,100 annually.
The report mentioned that implementing the EPBD directive by 2035 would lead to a reduction in annual coal imports by 7.7 million tons and natural gas by 4.6 billion cubic meters. „Considering the record prices of raw materials observed in 2022-23, the cost of acquiring such quantities of fossil fuels could reach up to PLN 40 billion,” experts estimated. They noted that this amount would be sufficient to cover the entire investment costs for the deep renovation of 200,000 single-family homes.
Economic growth
According to the association’s specialists, investments in building renovations could contribute an additional PLN 18.2 billion to the country’s GDP over the next decade, which corresponds to roughly 0.5 percent of Poland’s GDP in 2023. They believe that sectors of the Polish economy linked to the clean technology market stand to benefit the most.
The association further stated that between 2025 and 2035, the increase in heating capacity from installations featuring heat pumps in both residential and public buildings (new and undergoing extensive energy modernization) could reach nearly 20 GW, averaging an annual increase of 2 GW.
During the same period, up to 2.9 million heat pump installations could be established in single-family homes (averaging 290,000 per year), 50,000 in multi-family buildings (averaging 5,000 per year), and 100,000 in public utility structures (averaging 10,000 per year). New zero-emission buildings would account for around 30% of new heating installations that integrate heat pumps, while the remainder would involve replacing old heat sources in buildings undergoing deep renovations.
Data from the report indicates that by 2035, comprehensive energy modernization of buildings, which would include investments in renewable energy sources, could pave the way for the development of 2.5–5 GW of new photovoltaic (PV) installation capacity and solar collectors. Moreover, the requirement to invest in solar systems for new buildings might lead to an additional 4–6 GW of PV installations and solar collectors during this timeframe.
A surge in windows and doors
Experts from the association pointed out that undertaking deep renovations will necessitate a significant boost in the production of construction and insulation materials.
The demand for materials for the thermal modernization of residential and public buildings from 2025 to 2035, under the KPRB operational scenario, could reach as high as 60 million energy-efficient windows (averaging 6 million per year). Additionally, there will be a need for 3 million external doors with excellent specifications (averaging 300,000 per year). The renovation of buildings will also require 600 million square meters of insulating materials (averaging 60 million per year) as well as materials essential for the proper installation of thermal insulation boards, including 6 million tons of adhesive mortars, 600 million square meters of reinforcement mesh, 3 billion mechanical fasteners, 360 million linear meters of finishing strips, 180,000 tons of primers, and 1.4 million tons of plaster.
As per expert evaluations, the current average annual production of windows stands at around 15 million units. The Polish production of doors is estimated to be about 8 million (this figure includes interior doors and specialty doors). They noted that for materials used in insulating external walls of buildings, the sales volume in Poland is estimated to be 40-60 million square meters annually, with 55 percent of the market dedicated to new construction and 45 percent to building renovations.
„The rising demand from the renovation sector could significantly invigorate the construction materials production industry. For doors and windows, the average annual
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