Biznes Fakty
Inflation in Poland – March 2025. The latest data from the Central Statistical Office
Adam Glapiński on Inflation TVN24
The cost of consumer products and services rose by 4.9 percent in March 2025 compared to the same month last year, and saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1 percent, according to a quick estimate by the Central Statistical Office.
Analysts polled by PAP Biznes had predicted a 5.0% year-on-year increase and a 0.2% month-on-month rise in prices for March.
Finance Minister Andrzej Domański shared his thoughts on the figures via social media: „Inflation in March stands at 4.9 percent, once again falling short of analysts’ forecasts (5.1 percent). We are likely to witness a further decline in inflation in the upcoming months,” stated the head of the Ministry of Finance.
Comments from Economists
„4.9% for the third consecutive time! As indicated, CPI inflation did not surpass 5% in the first quarter (although these are merely preliminary March figures). We estimate core inflation to be around 3.5%. Adjusting for seasonal factors, the situation appears even more favorable,” remarked analysts from mBank.
„March’s inflation rate was 4.9% y/y, while we anticipated 5.0% y/y, with other forecasts ranging from 4.8% to 5.2%. The inflation scenario is rapidly improving. This year’s inflation peak was relatively low, and a return to the expected fluctuation range is projected for July, a year earlier than previously anticipated. This provides additional justification for proposing a rate cut in April, with an actual reduction feasible as soon as July,” noted economists from ING Bank Śląski.
„The annual inflation rate for March, based on preliminary estimates from the Central Statistical Office, was consistent with the previous two months at 4.9%. Again, the figures were below the average market anticipations. Estimates suggest that inflation excluding food and energy (the so-called core inflation) decreased in March to about 3.4-3.5% y/y, down from 3.6% y/y in February,” stated Monika Kurtek from Bank Pocztowy. „The March results indicate that the average inflation rate for the first quarter of this year will be 4.9% y/y, significantly lower than the NBP’s forecast of 5.4% y/y. This also implies that the entire inflation trajectory for this year is shifting downward, and by December, the CPI index could approach 3.0% y/y,” the economist elaborated. „What will the Monetary Policy Council decide in response? This certainly strengthens the 'dovish’ faction within the Council while diminishing the influence of the 'hawkish’ side. Discussions around interest rate reductions will likely become more frequent, although I believe the MPC will not have enough support to vote for a cut before July. This month, alongside the new inflation and GDP projections, could mark the beginning of a monetary policy easing cycle in Poland,” he concluded.
