Biznes Fakty
Interest rates. Witold Orłowski and Maciej Samcik in „Fakty po Faktach” TVN24
Let's be honest, the reduction made yesterday is largely symbolic. There are still numerous uncertainties – this was the perspective shared by economist Professor Witold Orłowski on the decision regarding interest rates during the „Fakty po Faktach” segment on TVN24. Economic journalist Maciej Samcik remarked that inflation „has not yet been conquered”.
On Wednesday, July 2, the Monetary Policy Council at the National Bank of Poland opted to decrease interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, leading to a basic (reference) interest rate of 5 percent. This decision took many economists by surprise.
MPC decision, interest rates, inflation
During „Fakty po Faktach” on TVN24, the MPC’s choice was analyzed by economist Prof. Witold Orłowski from Vistula Academy and the Warsaw University of Technology, alongside economic journalist Maciej Samcik from „Subiektywnie o finansach”.
– I don't believe that this decision was primarily influenced by inflation factors. While inflation isn't perfect, it remains within an acceptable range (…). Let's not deceive ourselves, the reduction made yesterday holds mostly symbolic significance (…) and we still face numerous uncertainties – stated Orłowski.
– One aspect is energy, and another is the rise in prices (…), this downward trend has halted. The dollar’s situation is also a concern, and there are several threats – he pointed out.
Dualism of the NBP President
Samcik, on the other hand, expressed his confusion regarding the „dualism of the NBP president, Adam Glapiński”. – On one hand, he asserts: inflation is essentially under control, and within a month it will fall within our inflation target range. Yet conversely: we cannot reduce interest rates – he remarked.
He further elaborated: – I would prefer us to commit to one of two directions. Then the NBP president could state: if no extraordinary events occur, we are entering a cycle of interest rate cuts, and the situation is managed. Alternatively: we have not overcome this inflation. If we have not, we should not lower interest rates and instead declare: we will combat inflation. The Monetary Policy Council should focus on tackling inflation. Currently, inflation is elevated, exceeding four percent. (…) It seems to me that it remains unconquered.
– But it seems we are stuck in a dilemma. We find ourselves in a divided stance, where the situation is reportedly under control, yet we cannot significantly reduce interest rates – the journalist emphasized.
Samcik: Inflation has not been defeated TVN24The issue of NBP forecasts
Orłowski highlighted that the NBP’s inflation predictions for the upcoming year are consistently varied, and one should consider the average value, although „there is a more significant issue at hand”.
– Historically, NBP forecasts were closely scrutinized. My concern is that the credibility of the NBP has diminished significantly in recent years. I mean, when individuals noticed shifts in what the president intended to convey – remarked Orłowski. – To be frank, one can interpret anything from the model – he added.
Conversely, Samcik noted that „all these projections that the Monetary Policy Council of the National Bank of Poland relies on have simply not been effective lately”.
Inflation in Poland
In June 2025, prices rose by 4.1 percent year-on-year, according to inflation statistics released by the Central Statistical Office (GUS). Month-on-month, prices increased by 0.1 percent. Analysts surveyed by PAP Biznes had anticipated a year-on-year price increase of 4.0 percent for June and a month-on-month rise of 0.1 percent.
Following the July meeting, the Monetary Policy Council issued a statement explaining the rationale behind the interest rate cut; it noted that the decision was influenced by forecasts suggesting that CPI inflation would dip below the upper limit of deviations from the NBP’s inflation target in the coming months.
In Poland, the inflation target is established at 2
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