Biznes Fakty
Poland's GDP for Q1 2025. We know the latest data from the Central Statistical Office
The gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2025 rose by 3.2 percent on a year-on-year basis, which is an increase from the 2.2 percent growth recorded in the same quarter of 2024, as reported by the Central Statistical Office (GUS).
During the fourth quarter of 2024, GDP grew by 3.4% year-on-year.
In the first quarter of 2025, the real, seasonally adjusted GDP (at constant prices, reference year 2020) saw an increase of 0.7% compared to the previous quarter and was 3.7% higher than the same period last year.
Real GDP, which is not seasonally adjusted (calculated at constant average annual prices from the previous year), rose by 3.2% in comparison to the first quarter of the previous year.
Poland’s GDP in the first quarter of 2025
According to the data from the Central Statistical Office, investments in Q1 experienced a growth of 6.3% year-on-year, private consumption increased by 2.5% year-on-year, and domestic demand rose by 4.6% year-on-year.
Economists surveyed by PAP Biznes had anticipated that investment would grow by 1.1 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, with domestic demand and private consumption both expected to increase by 5.0 percent year-on-year.
Polish economy. Comments
„The GDP for Q1 2025 confirmed a growth of 3.2% year-on-year. The primary driver of this growth remains private consumption, albeit with a slowdown (+2.5% year-on-year). We have observed a robust increase in investments (+6.3% year-on-year), though it is possible that this reflects defense or other public expenditures, as data from large firms indicate a reduction in spending. Change in inventories contributed +1.5 percentage points, while net exports contributed -1.1 percentage points. Overall, GDP growth continues on a solid trajectory,” stated analysts from ING Bank Śląski.
„A significant positive surprise in the 'core’ of GDP for Q1. Despite disappointing data regarding construction production, the main engine of growth turned out to be investments, which rose by 6.3% year-on-year. We remain hopeful for no revisions, as this could indicate double-digit growth dynamics in the second half of the year!” – noted experts from Bank Pekao.
„The narrative surrounding investments in Poland is consistently the same: – everyone anticipates stagnation, followed by a sudden leap (calm), – then there’s widespread discontent about inactivity, as people believe this time will surely be different (panic). And then there’s a leap: +6.3% year-on-year in Q2 2025. Just as expected,” remarked economists from mBank.
