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Poland's population may fall to 10 million people
An expert warns in Tuesday’s „Rzeczpospolita” that the population of Poland could dwindle to 10 million by the end of the century. He highlights that by 2025, the birth rate in the nation will drop to less than half of what is necessary for simple generational replacement.
1.03 is the projected fertility rate, indicating the average number of children a woman of childbearing age may have in Poland by 2025. This figure is based on early-year data from the online platform Birth Gauge, which monitors global demographic patterns.
„A shockingly low figure”
„This figure is indeed shockingly low. To achieve simple generational replacement, the fertility rate needs to be approximately 2.1. In 2017, Poland’s rate was 1.45, after which it began to decline. According to the latest figures from the Central Statistical Office, it fell to 1.16 in 2023, and experts predict it will be 1.11 in 2024. This latter estimate is still unofficial, as is the most recent data from Birth Gauge,” remarks „Rz”.
„Calculating the fertility rate requires comprehensive yearly data, encompassing not only the number of births but also the population of reproductive-age individuals and births among specific age cohorts of women,” explains demography specialist Mateusz Łakomy, author of „Demography is the Future” in „Rz”. „Hence, official statistics are typically released with a delay. Nevertheless, Birth Gauge generally provides fairly accurate projections,” he adds.
What implications does the reported fertility rate hold for Poland? As per 2024 data, Poland was already positioned third from the bottom among OECD nations, trailing only Chile and South Korea in this unfavorable ranking – the daily points out, emphasizing that the decline in Poland’s population is an ongoing issue that cannot be reversed, yet it must be viewed as a challenge. A further drop in the fertility rate suggests that negative trends will accelerate.
According to Łakomy, „the UN demographic forecast predicts that Poland’s population will decline to 14.5 million by 2100.” – However, these projections are based on a fertility rate assumption of 1.3. If the fertility rate remains around 1.0, it could lead to several million fewer people in Poland by the century’s end,” he notes.
Poland’s declining population
As of the first quarter of 2025, Poland’s population stood at 37.437 million, reflecting a decrease of 158,000 compared to the previous year – according to data released in April by the Central Statistical Office. In comparison to the end of 2024, the population has dropped by over 52,000.
Read also: 158 thousand individuals perished in a year >>>
