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Poland's rating. Moody's has reviewed Poland's rating. Credit rating remains „A2”, stable
Moody’s has evaluated Poland’s creditworthiness in light of recent developments. It stated that risks are „mitigated by Poland’s NATO membership and considerably improved self-defense capabilities.” The nation’s credit rating stays at „A2,” with a stable outlook.
The stable rating outlook indicates that the agency believes Poland’s considerable exposure to geopolitical threats, especially security risks, is mitigated by Poland’s NATO membership and significantly improved self-defense capabilities. „This is further supported by enhanced relations with the EU since the governmental shift in December 2023, which has released substantial funds to foster investment during the period of 2025-2028,” noted Moody’s.
The agency clarified that the assessment was carried out by the rating committee on March 18, 2025, during which the appropriateness of the ratings was reevaluated in the context of the relevant methodology and recent occurrences. It also mentioned that „this publication does not represent a rating action and does not indicate whether a credit rating change is likely in the near future.”
Factors influencing Poland’s rating assessment
As the authors of the review noted, „the stable outlook also reflects our perspective that the anticipated rise in the public debt burden and the decline in debt affordability are counterbalanced by Poland’s robust growth potential and strong commitment to bringing the fiscal deficit below 3 percent of GDP over the next five years, which would stabilize the debt burden at around 60 percent of GDP by 2030,” it was stated.
A prerequisite for any favorable action regarding Poland’s rating would be – in Moody’s view – a notable enhancement in the security landscape of the region and a substantial reduction in geopolitical risks.
„Among the fundamental factors, positive credit developments could reflect: Quickly restoring the complete independence of the judiciary and executing other initiatives that bolster economic and fiscal resilience; any indications that the expected deterioration in Poland’s debt ratios will be less severe and that stronger fiscal consolidation efforts will lead to a decline in the debt level well below 60% of GDP, ultimately restoring the pre-pandemic robust public sector balance sheet; and continued advancements in elevating the sophistication and complexity of the Polish economy.
Pressure to downgrade rating
A significant decline in the security environment of the region, including more explicit signals of a reduction in U.S. support, would create pressure for a downgrade of Poland’s stable rating outlook.
Consequently, downward pressure on the „A2” rating would emerge in a scenario where there is a significantly accelerated increase in the government’s debt burden and a decline in debt capacity indicators, surpassing Moody’s current baseline scenario.
A further decline in the rule of law that could adversely affect the business climate in Poland would also negatively impact the credit rating.
„While our baseline scenario does not predict a military confrontation between NATO and Russia, any military aggression towards Poland would trigger an immediate negative rating action. In such a situation, which we consider a very low-risk but very high-impact shock, Poland’s rating would face substantial additional pressure, likely resulting in a downgrade of several notches,” it added.
Moody’s views Poland’s rating as bolstered by a dynamic economy, improving ties with the European Union, which have unlocked significant investment resources for Poland, and a solid, albeit weakening, fiscal balance.
„There have been indications of a potential U.S. withdrawal from Europe, but Poland’s elevated defense expenditure (4.1% of GDP in 2024) and the effective expansion and modernization of the Polish armed forces since 2014 serve as crucial mitigating factors in this context. Adverse demographic trends are expected to start affecting Poland’s potential growth toward the end of the second decade of the 2000s and will heighten the fiscal costs associated with an aging population,” the agency reported.
Economic forecast for Poland
Moody’s predicts that Poland’s GDP growth in 2025 will reach 4%, driven by private consumption and investments.
The agency estimates that the general government deficit (GG) will only slightly decrease to 5.8% of GDP in 2025, down from an anticipated 6.1% in 2024, accounting for a further rise in defense spending to 4.7% of GDP.
„We anticipate only gradual fiscal consolidation beginning in 2026, which would stabilize the debt burden at slightly above 60% of GDP by 2030,” it added.
In mid-March this year, Fitch rating agency maintained Poland’s rating at A-/F1 for long- and short-term liabilities in foreign currency, and A-/F1 for long- and short-term liabilities in local currency, respectively. The rating outlook remains stable. According to the agency, Poland’s current rating is affirmed by, among other factors, a large, diversified, and resilient economy, as well as achievements in the realm of sound macroeconomic policy based on EU membership.
