Biznes Fakty
„Rate cuts are already a done deal.” Deadline has been set
Economists from Bank Pekao assert that reductions in interest rates for May and June are virtually certain, based on their analysis of data from the Central Statistical Office. They believe that the decrease in wage growth observed in March supports the case for the NBP to lower rates.
The economists at Bank Pekao have noted that the consistent reduction in wage growth „to approximately 7-8 percent” provides the Monetary Policy Council with a compelling argument for decreasing interest rates. They pointed out that the current interest levels were upheld during a time when wage increases were at 10-12 percent annually.
„Confirming the trend seen since the start of the year”
„A noteworthy aspect of the March statistics is the validation of the trend witnessed since the beginning of the year. The rate of wage increases is declining and has likely settled at a level we can deem 'normal’ and 'not alarming’. In 2025, for the first time since wages reacted significantly to the inflation surge in 2022, we observed a seven in the wage figures for two consecutive months. Consequently, we are now less than a percentage point away from the wage growth rates that were typical during 2017-19, a period marked by relative economic stability,” the economists from Bank Pekao commented regarding the GUS data.
The Central Statistical Office published figures on wages and employment in the corporate sector on Tuesday. In this sector, the average gross wage in March stood at PLN 9,055.92, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.7 percent, while employment decreased by 0.9 percent year-on-year.
„The Council is more dovish than ever before”
„Given the deteriorating global economic landscape alongside changes in the labor market, positive CPI inflation figures with the potential to meet the MPC target by the end of the year, and disappointing results from the industrial and construction sectors for March, the Council has more dovish justifications than it has ever had. We believe that interest rate cuts in May and June (2x 50bp) are already a certainty. The question we ponder is whether there is potential for even greater cuts this year, and for now, we refrain from offering a definitive answer,” stated Pekao’s commentary.
The economists at the bank concluded that the drop in corporate sector employment „was not unexpected.” They noted that according to the Central Statistical Office, the number of jobs decreased by 8,000 compared to the previous month.
„The outlook for 2025 appears similarly weak compared to the last two years, and this trend is unlikely to shift in the coming months. We still anticipate that any significant deviations from historical patterns may emerge in the latter half of the year at the earliest, although we should not expect any dramatic changes then,” the commentary from Bank Pekao stated.
