Biznes Fakty
Waiting times for doctors may be longer. „Risk scenario”
– The options for immediate increases in the National Health Fund budget will soon be significantly limited – noted Łukasz Kozłowski from the Federation of Polish Entrepreneurs. He remarked that in such circumstances, preserving the illusion of planning the NHF budget heightens the likelihood of restricting access to treatment.
Over the past year, the financial blueprint of the National Health Fund had to be revised multiple times due to insufficient funds to cover patient treatments, including pharmaceutical programs essential for treating oncological diseases, spinal muscular atrophy (SMA), and multiple sclerosis (MS).
Additional funds to bridge the deficit came from various sources, including the sale of treasury bonds and the National Health Fund’s reserve fund, which has now been depleted.
„Drastically” reduced options for augmenting the National Health Fund
Łukasz Kozłowski, chief economist of the Federation of Polish Entrepreneurs, stated that the excessive deficit procedure and the stricter regulations that the National Health Fund’s financial plan will face starting in 2026 will drastically limit the ability for immediate funding increases.
Kozłowski assessed that maintaining the illusion of planning the National Health Fund budget poses a growing risk of direct impact on patients, such as longer wait times for treatment.
As the expert elaborated, responding to indications from healthcare providers that the National Health Fund is failing to cover treatments will become more challenging than it currently is. – Any additional funding for the National Health Fund will necessitate cuts in other areas, which is invariably politically challenging and socially painful – he emphasized.
Kozłowski added that this represents a „risk scenario” if there is no adequate response to the changes.
Two avenues for supplementing the National Health Fund budget in 2026
As of 2026, if the government aims to address the shortfall in the National Health Fund budget, it will need to identify savings in the state budget of equivalent value or enhance revenue through taxes or contributions.
According to analyses from the Federation of Polish Entrepreneurs (FPP) and the Institute of Public Finance (IFP) presented on Wednesday, the financial plans of the National Health Fund do not align with actual and anticipated expenses. Experts have estimated that in 2024, the financial shortfall in the National Health Fund’s plan surpassed PLN 30 billion, and this gap will continue to grow in the coming years.
Experts have calculated that the financial shortfall for the NHF from 2025 to 2028, during the government’s commitment to reduce the deficit to below 2.9% of GDP, will rise by 1.1 percentage points of GDP to between 1.5% and 1.8% of GDP. They highlighted that only in 2025 will it be higher by 0.5% of GDP compared to the projections for 2024.
State budget for health in 2025
The budget for 2025 allocates PLN 221.7 billion for healthcare (including the National Health Fund), representing an increase in spending of nearly PLN 31 billion.
The state’s financial plan anticipates total budget revenues of PLN 632.6 billion, expenditures not exceeding PLN 921.6 billion, and a deficit capped at PLN 289 billion.
The Budget Act was devised with the expectation that GDP growth in 2025 will reach 3.9 percent and that the average annual inflation rate will be 5 percent.
