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Impact of Trump Tariffs on Fuel Prices: Analysis
Analysts from Refleks anticipate that prices for 95 octane petrol might dip below PLN 6 per litre again, while diesel prices could near PLN 6. They are monitoring a „significant” decline in oil prices, which is expected to reflect in fuel prices next week. E-patrol analysts believe this is a consequence of US trade policy.
„It has been quite some time since we witnessed such a steep decline in oil prices on the market. This adjustment is attributed to the implementation of tariffs on goods imported into the US and the unexpected decision from OPEC+,” remarked Refleks analysts on Friday.
Furthermore, E-patrol analysts noted that the recent increases in petrol prices at filling stations since January may have been merely temporary. They observed that the impact of US trade policy is leading to a sudden decrease in oil prices and a strengthening of the złoty against the dollar.
Read also: Trump’s new tariffs have come into force >>>
Fuel price outlook for the upcoming week
Refleks analysts highlighted that the end of the week has already shown price cuts on the wholesale market; however, stations will likely not respond to these changes until next week at the earliest. „With the return of price declines in the wholesale market, it is feasible that the prices of unleaded petrol 95 will again drop below PLN 6/l, while diesel might approach PLN 6/l,” the analysts forecasted. They cautioned, however, that they do not expect reductions at every station.
The e-patrol projection suggests that drivers may see price stabilization at gas stations in the coming week, with a possibility of further decreases in autogas prices. „Expected price ranges for different fuel types are as follows: PLN 5.96-6.07/l for 95-octane petrol, PLN 6.04-6.15/l for diesel, and PLN 3.06-3.12/l for autogas.”
Current fuel prices
Refleks also emphasized that the present fuel prices at stations still mirror last week’s fluctuations in the wholesale market, which is why price hikes at some stations, particularly for petrol, reached several groszy per litre. „On April 3 this year, the average retail prices for unleaded petrol 95 were PLN 6.01/l, unleaded petrol 98 PLN 6.78/l, diesel oil PLN 6.10/l, and autogas PLN 3.13/l. This indicates an increase of 3–4 groszy/l for petrol and 1 grosz/l for diesel and autogas,” the analysts indicated.
They highlighted that current fuel prices continue to be „in a favorable relationship” to prices from a year earlier. „Unleaded petrol 95 is now 59 gr/l cheaper than a year ago, unleaded 98 by 41 gr/l, and diesel by 62 gr/l. The only fuel type that costs more than a year ago is autogas, which has increased by 27 gr/l,” they reported.
Analysts from e-patrol also noted that in the past week, the fluctuation of retail fuel prices was relatively low, but for the first time since January this year, they observed a rise in petrol prices, including 95-octane. „The price of this fuel rose by 4 groszy to PLN 5.98/l. The average price of diesel oil remained stable since the end of March, costing PLN 6.08/l, similar to the previous week,” the analysts stated. They also pointed out that autogas has been decreasing in price for the fourth consecutive week, with a two-grosz reduction bringing it to PLN 3.11/l. „This is the lowest price for this fuel since November of the previous year,” they assessed.
Oil prices: Lowest since late November 2021
Refleks experts also noted that on Friday, the prices of June Brent crude oil contracts dropped to approximately USD 65.70 per barrel, representing the lowest level since the end of November 2021. Over the course of the week, Brent crude oil fell by more than USD 7 per barrel.
Forecasts from e-petrol.pl for the upcoming days suggest additional wholesale price decreases. „Currently, a cubic meter of 95-octane gasoline is valued at PLN 4,684.80, which is PLN 16.40 lower than last Friday. Diesel oil has decreased by PLN 39.20 over the week and currently costs PLN 4,731.00 per cubic meter,” the portal’s experts remarked.
According to Refleks analysts, the market is attempting to factor in a scenario of an oversupply of crude oil and a rise in global reserves. „After the speech from the US president and the announcement of new global tariffs, which could significantly influence the demand growth rate for oil, the market was taken aback by OPEC+’s decision,” the analysts acknowledged.
As they elaborated, in May, production limits for eight OPEC+ countries (Saudi Arabia,
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