Biznes Fakty
Inflation in June 2025. New data from the Central Statistical Office
In June 2025, inflation reached 4.1 percent year-on-year, according to the Central Statistical Office (GUS). Prices rose by 0.1 percent compared to the previous month. This figure aligns with GUS’s earlier preliminary estimate.
The Office indicated that in June 2025, the cost of services surged by 6.3% year-on-year, while the price of goods increased by 3.2% year-on-year. In comparison to the previous month, service prices went up by 0.8%, whereas goods saw a slight decline of 0.2%.
This is how prices are rising in Poland
As per the Central Statistical Office, in June 2025, there was a year-on-year increase in several categories, including: – housing – up by 8.2%, – food – up by 4.8%, – alcoholic beverages and tobacco – up by 6.7%, – restaurants and hotels – up by 6.0%, – health – up by 4.6%.
Conversely, price reductions were noted in: – transport – down by 6.0%, – clothing and footwear – down by 1.5%.
Inflation in June 2025. Comments
„This marks the final month with inflation surpassing the target fluctuation range (1.5-3.5% y/y) – in July, inflation will decrease below 3% y/y significantly,” stated PKO BP analysts on social media.
Economists from ING Bank Śląski echo this sentiment, forecasting that „CPI inflation will dip below 3% in July” and that it will stabilize in the subsequent months.
„The Monetary Policy Council is expected to continue reducing interest rates. A cut of 50 basis points could occur in September,” as noted in a post on the X platform.
„Core inflation is likely to see a slight increase to 3.4% year-on-year due to rising service prices (+0.8% month-on-month). Nonetheless, this shouldn’t raise alarms – at the same time, individual service prices have increased only once, which might be unexpected (airline tickets, telecommunications services, organized tourism),” wrote analysts from Bank Pekao.
They further remarked that „this diminishes in significance when we consider that CPI inflation will fall below 3% y/y in July (with pronounced base effects on energy carriers),” which „will lead the Monetary Policy Council to reduce interest rates,” with „the next adjustment anticipated in September.”
