Biznes Fakty
This is what the week will be like in the economy
This week, the Central Statistical Office (GUS) is set to release retail sales figures and a report for January, while also unveiling a preliminary GDP estimate for the fourth quarter of 2024. The Ministry of Finance, alongside the National Economy Bank, will conduct bond auctions. Additionally, the Ministry of Finance will disclose information regarding the State Treasury’s debt.
The week in the domestic market will kick off with the release of retail sales data for January (Monday). Based on the consensus conducted by PAP Biznes, the market anticipates that sales adjusted for constant prices rose by 1.5% year-on-year last month, although they dropped by 19.9% month-on-month.
Central Statistical Office data
On Tuesday, investors will focus on the release of the Central Statistical Office’s statistical bulletin for January, which will include the unemployment rate for that month. According to the preliminary estimates from the Ministry of Family, Labor, and Social Policy, the registered unemployment rate in January was 5.4 percent, compared to 5.1 percent the previous month.
The Central Statistical Office will also provide the unemployment rate calculated based on the Labour Force Survey (LFS) for the fourth quarter of 2024. In the previous quarter, the unemployment rate stood at 2.9 percent.
While the market has already received the GDP figures for the entirety of 2024 (+2.9%), on Thursday, domestic investors will be attentive to the preliminary estimate of gross domestic product for the fourth quarter of 2024. This data will enable a more thorough evaluation of Poland’s economic situation at the end of last year and its implications for growth in the first quarter of 2025.
According to economists at Santander BP, in Q4 2024, growth in private consumption rebounded to over 3.0% from 0.3% in Q3. They also predict an acceleration in investment, although at a more modest pace.
Bond sales
The bond auctions scheduled for this week by the Ministry of Finance and the National Economy Bank will be significant for the debt market.
The Ministry of Finance will conduct the auction on Wednesday and will release details of the offering on Monday. In its monthly plan, the ministry indicated that securities worth PLN 5-10 billion would be available at the auction on February 26.
Meanwhile, BGK will organize a bond sale auction for the COVID-19 Counteraction Fund on Thursday. This auction will offer bonds FPC0328, FPC0631, FPC0733, FPC0342, among others. The bank will disclose the details of the offering on Tuesday.
On Friday, the Ministry of Finance is expected to publish a detailed plan for the supply of treasury bonds for March. The annual issuance plan indicates that the Ministry of Finance anticipates three bond auctions in March – sales or exchanges, depending on the budget and market conditions.
On the Warsaw Stock Exchange, several companies will announce their financial results. On Wednesday, AB, Ailleron, and Budimex will present their outcomes, followed by Pekao, Asbis, Kruk, Orlen, Text, and Dino on Thursday, and Comarch on Friday.
