„Clear slowdown” in housing. No signs of improvement

Minister Paszyk on the new housing program TVN24

Developers and private investors initiated fewer new apartment projects in February compared to the same month last year, as reported by the authors of the Otodom analysis. There is also a noticeable decline in the number of completed units. These trends are partly due to the steep rise in loan costs beginning in 2023. The repercussions of this slowdown on the real estate sector will become evident in the upcoming months.

The most recent figures from the Central Statistical Office indicate that the volume of apartments and houses brought into use in Poland during February was lower than both the preceding month and the same month last year.

In February, all investor categories collectively delivered 14.9 thousand apartments, which reflects a 4 percent decrease from January and nearly an 8 percent drop year-on-year. Out of this total, developers accounted for 8.9 thousand apartments, signifying a 5 percent decline in comparison to January and a 10 percent decrease from February of the previous year.

Developers delivered fewer apartments in February than a year ago Shutterstock

Consequences of the 2022 lending slowdown

Experts from Otodom suggest that while there was a monthly decline of several percent, the February figures do not significantly differ from those achieved by development firms in previous years. However, the year-on-year decrease from February last year can be attributed to the historically low number of construction projects started two years ago.

„To objectively analyze and assess this year’s data from the Central Statistical Office regarding the number of apartments delivered by development companies, one must consider the quantity of construction projects initiated by these companies in the first half of 2023. It is important to note that the substantial number of permits acquired by developers in 2022, due to new legislative changes, coupled with a downturn in sales resulting from a sharp rise in mortgage loan costs, caused a slowdown in residential construction in the first half of 2023,” the report’s authors emphasized.

They also pointed out that during this period, developers secured fewer permits and initiated a record-low number of new constructions. The monthly count dropped from 12,000 in 2021-2022 to 8,000 in the first half of 2023. The ramifications of this halt from two years ago – according to their view – will be evident in the first half of this year, when the monthly number of apartments delivered will be correspondingly lower.

Residential slowdown is visible Shutterstock

Apartments in Poland are primarily constructed by developers.

As per the data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS) referenced in the report, development firms are accountable for 60% of all residential units delivered in February. In a scenario where the performance of development companies was poorer than in January and individual investors fared slightly better, the latter’s share of the total number of units delivered increased from 36% to 38%. Compared to February 2024, households (referred to as individual investors by the Central Statistical Office) completed the construction of 4% fewer houses or apartments, but their results improved by 1.5% compared to the preceding month.

According to Otodom experts, the month-on-month reduction in the number of units delivered by developer companies has not been corroborated by the cumulative data on completed units since the beginning of the year. In the January-February timeframe, developer firms delivered 18.3 thousand apartments and houses, while a year ago they delivered 18.1 thousand.

Simultaneously, individual investors finished the construction of 11.2 thousand units – 8 percent lower than in the same timeframe in 2024. The authors of the report indicate that various signs suggest a likelihood of lower year-on-year results in this category of apartments brought into use over the forthcoming months.

New building permits

The total number of permits issued in February surpassed 20 thousand, with developers acquiring 13.4 thousand and individual investors obtaining 5.6 thousand. Consequently, the overall number of permits issued in February was 2 percent higher than in January. However, in comparison to February of the previous year, the number of building permits fell by nearly 7 percent. Unlike January, it was households, rather than development firms, that exhibited greater activity in this category compared to a year earlier.

The number of residential units for which various investor groups received building permits in the January-February period is lower than the previous year. During the first two months of this year, developers received building permits for 26.5 thousand apartments and houses – a decrease of 12.4 percent year-on-year, while individual investors obtained 11.2 thousand – an increase of 2.3 percent.

Źródło