Biznes Fakty
Inflation in Poland. Prices to rise in July 2025. New data from the Central Statistical Office
The prices of goods and services have increased. By what margin? In July 2025, inflation hit 3.1 percent compared to the previous year, as reported by the Central Statistical Office. Additionally, the Central Statistical Office indicated that prices were up by 0.3 percent relative to June.
This figure aligns with a prior flash estimate from the Central Statistical Office. In June 2025, the cost of goods and services rose by 4.1% year-on-year.
Data from Statistics Poland also indicates that inflation has not been this low in over a year – in June 2024, the price increase was 2.6% year-on-year.
Inflation in July 2025
„In July 2025, the prices of consumer goods and services rose by 3.1% compared to the same month last year (with service prices increasing by 6.2% and goods by 1.9%),” reported the Central Statistical Office.
They added that „compared to the prior month, the prices of goods and services rose by 0.3% (including services by 1.0% and goods by 0.1%).”
Commentary on July Inflation
„It’s now 100% official – the much-anticipated return to the fluctuation range around the inflation target has occurred. We believe that core inflation has risen to 3.5%,” stated economists at mBank.
According to them, „when examining the details, it is evident that core inflation was somewhat elevated due to the rise in radio and television fees (one-off), while „the entire services sector is experiencing robust growth at 1% month-on-month, with goods stabilizing the situation (barely +0.1%).”
„Taking into account several reports regarding increases in water and heating prices that have already occurred (or are expected) since July/August, this factor is still absent from inflation and will likely emerge in the next reading. However, this is unlikely to prevent inflation from dropping below 3% by year-end,” analysts expressed on social media.
„The final reading confirmed a decrease in CPI inflation in July to 3.1% year-on-year from 4.1% year-on-year in June. This annual decline in inflation is primarily attributed to the waning base effect related to the partial unfreezing of energy prices in July 2024,” noted economists at PKO BP.
They further added: „Prices of goods increased by 1.9% year-on-year (compared to 3.2% year-on-year in June), while service inflation remains high at 6.2% year-on-year (versus 6.3% year-on-year a month earlier). We estimate that core inflation has reduced to 3.3% year-on-year from 3.4% year-on-year in June.”
„July inflation confirmed at 3.1% year-on-year after 4.1% in June. We await the results of energy prices in Q4 2025, but we anticipate that electricity prices will not rise until the end of the year. If inflation in the forthcoming months aligns closely with the NBP and Monetary Policy Council targets, there is potential for interest rate reductions. By the close of 2025, we foresee -75bps,” analysts from ING shared on social media.
