Biznes Fakty
Productivity in Poland. New data
From 2019 to 2024, Poland experienced a productivity increase of 9.6 percent. This surpasses the figures for the US (7.3 percent) and Germany (0.7 percent), as per the analysis conducted by EY.
EY examined productivity, defined as GDP per hour worked, over the period from 2015 to 2024, focusing particularly on the timeframe from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the second quarter of 2024.
Comparison of Polish productivity with American and German productivity
According to a press release, even with an initial drop during the pandemic, Poland’s productivity rose by 9.6% from 2019 to 2024. In this regard, the country is performing „significantly better” than the US and Western European nations – they noted. The productivity growth in the US was reported at 7.3%, while Germany saw only a 0.7% increase, Great Britain experienced a 2% rise, and France faced a 1.5% decline – as per the analysis.
Analysts noted that the most rapid increase in GDP per hour worked was observed in Malta (18.7%) and Slovakia (12.3%). The surge in productivity within Poland is largely due to a convergence process, often described as „catching up with Western Europe” – the analysts remarked. They pointed out that the capital stock in Poland was relatively low following the political shift, compared to nations like Germany or France, and the efficiency of our workforce began to grow significantly, aided by the adoption of Western technologies. They also highlighted that the entire Central and Eastern Europe region experienced the „most pronounced” growth in Total Factor Productivity (TFP) within Europe, Africa, and Central Asia (EMEA), maintaining strong performance despite the slowdown following the global financial crisis. – Similar trends are evident in other countries within the region, which is why recent years have seen substantial productivity increases in Lithuania, Slovakia, and Bulgaria, while countries like France, Germany, and Italy are grappling with stagnation and declines – noted Marek Rozkrut, head of the Economic Analysis Team and EY’s chief economist for Europe and Central Asia, as quoted in the release. The most significant productivity growth in Poland from 2019 to 2024 was recorded in the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector (37.1%, compared to 9.1% from 2015-19), attributed to a decrease in the number of small farms. The analysis also indicated productivity gains in the real estate sector (39.8% from 2015-19 and 35% from 2019-24), manufacturing (11% from 2015-19 and 12% from 2019-24), as well as construction (which saw a 12.5% decline in productivity in 2015-19 and a 13.8% increase in 2019-24). – Across sectors, productivity growth is widespread and encompasses nearly all industries examined. Although the pace of growth varies, there is no evidence of a single sector being responsible for the majority of overall productivity gains – emphasized Maciej Stefański, a senior economist at EY’s Economic Analysis Team. The entertainment sector experienced the most significant slowdown, being the only sector to report a 16% decline in productivity from 2019-24, which analysts attribute to the pandemic. The study also noted slowdowns in trade, transport, accommodation, and catering services (15.9% from 2015-19 and 10.5% from 2019-24), public services (from 8.8% to 6.1%), finance (from 46.3% to 4.4%), in the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) industries (from 17.3% to 1.7%), and in professional services (from 18.5% to 1.3%). – The ICT sector is among the most rapidly developing in Poland. However, the decline in productivity growth rates may suggest that this growth is becoming increasingly extensive, with new employees being hired who may not be as productive as their predecessors, rather than enhancing the efficiency of the existing workforce. Factors that may hinder productivity include challenges in finding suitable specialists, the shift to remote and hybrid work, and reductions in overtime – assessed Maciej Stefański.
Anticipated productivity growth
EY projects productivity growth in Poland over the next 3.5 years. Rozkrut stated that this growth will likely be on par with or slightly faster than the previous 4.5 years, indicating a „moderate acceleration” annually. EY analysts believe this trend will be driven by further capital accumulation, ongoing convergence, an improvement in Poland’s cyclical position, which refers to the country’s economic state relative to its production potential, and also „to a limited extent” by generative artificial intelligence (GenAI). EY’s estimates suggest that AI could boost Total Factor Productivity by 0.9% in Western Europe, 0.6% in Southern Europe, 0.4% in the MENA region (Middle East and North Africa), 0.3% in Central and Eastern Europe, and 0.05% in Sub-Saharan Africa over a decade. „Should GenAI be adopted more rapidly, these figures could potentially double compared to the baseline scenario,” the analysts highlighted. EY provides services in auditing, tax, business, strategic, and transaction advisory.
