Biznes Fakty
Industrial production in April 2025. Central Statistical Office data. Minister of Finance Andrzej Domański comments
In April 2025, industrial output rose by 1.2 percent compared to the same month last year, although it experienced a decline of 3.5 percent when compared to the previous month, as reported by the Central Statistical Office (GUS). Experts regard this as a „positive surprise.”
Analysts polled by PAP Biznes had anticipated a 0.2 percent year-on-year decrease in production and a 4.8 percent decline month-on-month.
When adjusted for seasonal variations, the industrial production sold in April was 0.2 percent lower than in the same month of the prior year but 1.0 percent higher compared to the preceding month.
Growth in 18 sectors, decline in 16
As per preliminary findings, April saw an increase in sold production (at constant prices) in 18 out of 34 industrial sectors when compared to April of the previous year, according to the Central Statistical Office.
Growth in sold production (at constant prices) was noted in several sectors, including: – repair, maintenance, and installation of machinery and equipment – up by 38.6 percent, – production of other transport equipment – up by 13.5 percent, – food products – up by 8.9 percent, – waste management; recovery of raw materials – up by 7.9 percent, – production of items from other non-metallic mineral raw materials – up by 4.4 percent, – motor vehicles, trailers, and semi-trailers – up by 3.4 percent, – metals – up by 3.2 percent, – machinery and equipment – up by 3.1 percent.
Conversely, a decrease in sold industrial production was observed in 16 sectors when compared to April of the previous year, including: – mining of hard coal and lignite – down by 15.5 percent, – production of chemicals and chemical products – down by 8.0 percent, – beverages – down by 2.6 percent, – rubber and plastic products – down by 2.1 percent.
Central Statistical Office data. Comments
„Industrial production in April rose by 1.2%, significantly exceeding market forecasts (-0.4%). In the months ahead, we anticipate a gradual uptick in industrial sector activity, primarily driven by robust domestic demand,” Finance Minister Andrzej Domański shared on social media.
„At last, a favorable surprise in industrial production statistics, which saw an increase of 1.2% year-on-year in April (consensus: 0.4% year-on-year). Is this the conclusion of years of stagnation? Not quite; we are still at production levels that have persisted since 2022. This could merely signify the start of the end,” analysts from Bank Pekao remarked in response to the GUS data.
„It’s also important to note the positive, better-than-expected results in industrial production. This aligns with the improving PMI. Furthermore, after seasonal adjustments, it becomes evident that the primary factor was industrial processing. This is certainly an encouraging indication for the future,” commented analysts from mBank.
They further noted that „it’s critical to consider that the rebound may have been partially influenced by an increase in imports from the US (due to tariffs), which Poland might have indirectly capitalized on by exporting goods, for instance, to Germany,” and expressed that „the following month will reveal how accurate these speculations are.”
